Great businesses at fair prices — here's why each makes the list.
…and 283 more buy candidates in the full briefing.
29 name(s) sliding toward Avoid:
Value $96,968 ▼ -3.0% since 2026-07-16 · ▼ -$282 (-0.3%) since yesterday · S&P -2.0% · Cash $1,016
| Stock | Held | Price | Today | Since buy | Grade |
| DUOL | 77 sh | $120.67 | ▲ +1.0% | -6.4% | 90 |
| HIG | 73 sh | $142.18 | ▲ +1.0% | +4.0% | 90 |
| INTU | 33 sh | $281.53 | ▼ -1.0% | -4.5% | 88 |
| LOPE | 69 sh | $139.21 | ▲ +1.8% | -2.8% | 90 |
| META | 15 sh | $606.10 | ▼ -3.4% | -8.8% | 89 |
| NBIX | 58 sh | $174.15 | ▲ +0.8% | +1.5% | 89 |
| NEM | 110 sh | $94.72 | ▼ -1.1% | +4.3% | 90 |
| PRI | 31 sh | $308.18 | ▼ -1.5% | -1.5% | 92 |
| PTC | 78 sh | $113.05 | ▼ -0.1% | -11.2% | 90 |
| RMD | 49 sh | $191.89 | ▼ -0.5% | -5.4% | 89 |
Fictional money · prices update daily · a live test of whether the picks actually work.
Does the grading actually work? Two honest halves — a backtest on past data, and the real live record as it ripens. It reports the truth even when that's “not enough data yet.”
Reconstructed 319 graded moments across 150 companies (a sample of 150 names), then measured what each actually returned over the next 12 months.
Do higher grades earn better returns?
| Grade | Names | 12-mo return | vs S&P |
| A (80-100) | 44 | +13.0% | -1.1% |
| B (65-79) | 162 | +12.1% | -3.7% |
| C (50-64) | 89 | +15.3% | -0.2% |
| D-F (<50) | 24 | +41.0% | +27.2% |
→ higher grades did WORSE here (gap 28.0 pts) ⚠️
3 snapshot(s) since 2026-07-06, none ripe yet — first 6-month check ~2027-01-06.
Backtest limits: ~5 years back, surviving companies only, restated statements — a strong first read, not gospel. The live record is the hindsight-free gold standard and strengthens every month. Refreshed 2026-07-19. Educational only — not financial advice.
The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks erased roughly $797 billion in market value on July 23 — their worst day since April 2025. The trigger was Alphabet announcing ~$200 billion in 2026 capital spending on AI infrastructure, while Tesla missed profit expectations and confirmed $25 billion in annual AI capex. Investors are questioning whether these massive AI bets will pay off fast enough. The rotation moved money away from the big spenders and toward semiconductor/infrastructure suppliers (Micron, SK Hynix rose). This is context for META below.
Q2 2026 earnings just reported — strong. Newmont posted record Q2 free cash flow of $2.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.10 (beat estimates of $1.99), and produced 1.3 million ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,621/oz with a $4,414 average realized gold price. The company returned $1.9 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, and holds $3.4 billion in net cash. 51% of full-year production is weighted to H2, so the back half should be even stronger. The Red Chris Block Cave project got regulatory approval.
One caution: rising oil prices create a ~$60 million annual cost headwind per $10/barrel move, and Red Chris capex may run higher than planned due to inflation. The stock dipped slightly after earnings despite the beat — a Barron's headline noted "strong earnings and cash flow, stock is down," which sometimes happens when expectations were already high. This is a real catalyst reinforcing the high grade; nothing here changes the thesis negatively.
No company-specific material news this week. The headlines were about a VOYA industry comparison (not directly about Primerica) and a survey about middle-income household budgets (relevant to Primerica's customer base but not a catalyst). Two institutional buy notices (Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund, Fifth Third Bancorp increased positions) — a mild positive signal but routine. Quiet week; the high grade stands on fundamentals alone.
Two stories pulling in opposite directions. On the positive side, an Apptopia report (July 23) found that AI's threat to Duolingo is "overstated" — engagement data shows time spent per daily active user among ages 17–25 hit its highest level since Jan 2025, and heavy users of AI chatbot features within the app are actually increasing their time on the platform, not leaving. That contradicts the bear case that free AI chatbots would kill Duolingo.
On the negative side, a Stocktwits report flagged the CEO mentioning slower growth, with the stock heading for "its worst day in months" (July 23, down 4.5%). Analysts are lifting AI-driven price targets, but the near-term growth slowdown is real. The grade (90.3) captures the strong fundamentals; the AI-resilience data is encouraging, but watch the next earnings for whether the growth deceleration is a blip or a trend.
Q2 2026 earnings just reported — solid beat. Net income rose 31% YoY to $1.3 billion ($4.68/share). Core earnings of $3.42/share beat estimates of $3.14 by 9%. The combined ratio improved to 91.2% (better than the expected 92.4%), showing strong underwriting discipline. Business insurance premiums grew 5%. AM Best affirmed Hartford's credit ratings with a stable outlook.
The board authorized a new $4.2 billion share buyback (Aug 2026 through end of 2028) — a major capital return commitment. They returned $615 million to shareholders this quarter alone ($450M buybacks + $165M dividends). ROE stands at 23.8%. Personal insurance premiums dipped 7% from competitive pressure, but the underlying combined ratio improved there too. This is a real catalyst supporting the grade.
Stock hit a 52-week low ($135.61). No company-specific bad news — this appears to be sector/sentiment pressure. Earnings are expected to be reported this week. Fifth Third Bancorp bought ~7,900 shares (routine institutional activity). The low price against unchanged fundamentals is exactly the kind of situation where valuation gets more attractive — but earnings will tell whether the grade holds.
Stock dropped ~6.9% recently. No PTC-specific bad news triggered the drop; it looks like broader tech selling (the Mag-7 AI-spending selloff dragged down enterprise software names too). The fundamentals that drive the grade are intact: 38.7% operating margin, 84.7% gross margin, and 21% average billings growth over the last year. PTC's CAD/PLM software for manufacturers has a strong competitive moat ("difficult to replicate at scale"). The selloff may be creating a better entry point if you believe in the fundamentals. No catalyst either way — just market noise.
UBS cut its price target to $300 (from $312) but kept a Buy rating. They expect strong fiscal Q4 results with 8.6% sales growth and improving gross margins. The concern is a production problem with ResMed's Astral ventilators — the company has restricted manufacturing to replacement units under a field safety notice, which will constrain normal sales and likely pressure fiscal 2027. UBS trimmed FY2027 EPS estimates by ~1% and raised buyback guidance to $880M. Record free cash flow of $1.7 billion is a strong positive. Near-term momentum looks good, but the ventilator issue clouds the FY2027 outlook. Grade and news are aligned — strong business with one identifiable headwind.
Caught in the broader AI-spending selloff. Meta fell ~3.4% on July 23 as part of the Mag-7 rout. The specific Meta news: the company faces higher borrowing costs on its latest $12 billion data center financing (El Paso, TX) — bond investors now want yields above 7%, up ~0.4 percentage points from Meta's previous deal 9 months ago. That's not cheap, and when you're borrowing tens of billions, small rate increases add up to tens of millions in extra annual interest. Still, S&P rated the bonds A+ and Meta's ad business remains highly profitable. Meta also named a new Chief Information Security Officer (former PayPal exec) — routine. Earnings are coming soon; the market will want to see whether the massive AI capex is translating into revenue. The grade reflects the strong ad business; the risk is whether AI spending becomes a drag.
Earnings expected next week — analysts are bullish. Consensus is $2.24 EPS (up 111% YoY) on $894M revenue (up 30%). The company has a positive Earnings Surprise Prediction of +3.8% and has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters (most recently by +15.5%). Leadership changes: Neurocrine hired a new Chief Business Officer (Samir Siddhanti, who led the $2.9B Soleno acquisition) and a new market access chief. These are growth-oriented hires, not red flags. The stock trades at roughly fair value (~26x P/E) — not cheap but not expensive either. No negative catalysts; the upcoming earnings will be the next real test.
Two headwinds, one positive. The negatives: (1) A class action lawsuit alleging Intuit made misleading statements about TurboTax growth — the stock is already down 63% over the past year and 55% YTD, so this piles on existing pain. (2) Morgan Stanley downgraded to "equal weight" (from overweight) and slashed the price target to $335 from $580, citing AI disruption fears around TurboTax. Bristol Gate Capital fully liquidated its position, calling near-term earnings visibility "diminished." A 17% workforce reduction adds to the uncertainty.
The positive: Intuit launched a QuickBooks Business Credit Card (unlimited 2% cash back, 5% on Intuit products, no annual fee, instant virtual card) with built-in spend management and AI-driven cash flow insights. This deepens the QuickBooks ecosystem moat — the more financial services Intuit embeds, the stickier the platform becomes. Morgan Stanley itself acknowledged Intuit's accounting moat remains "strong" despite the TurboTax worries.
The grade (88.5) is driven by the overall business quality, but the AI disruption fear around TurboTax and the lawsuit are real near-term risks. The grade and news partially disagree here — fundamentals say strong, but market sentiment and the lawsuit say caution. Worth watching closely.
Q2 loss on an 85% fuel cost surge. Alaska Air posted an adjusted loss of $0.92/share (slightly better than the expected $0.99 loss). Revenue of $4.07B was up 9.7% YoY but missed estimates. The real problem: fuel costs exploded 85% to $1.31 billion ($4.43/gallon vs $2.39 a year ago) — this alone added ~$600 million in expenses. Q3 guidance of $0–$1 EPS badly missed the consensus of ~$1.41–$1.48.
Hawaii rainstorms hurt unit revenue by ~3 points, and leverage rose to 4.8x net debt/EBITDAR (from 2.9x). Management maintained its $10 EPS target for 2027 and is expanding with 110 new Boeing aircraft plus cargo freighters in Hawaii. The low grade is justified — this is a real earnings deterioration driven by fuel costs outside the company's control. The war-related fuel spike (U.S.-Iran tensions mentioned in headlines) makes the timing of recovery uncertain.
Q2 earnings expected to decline. Analysts project lower earnings ahead, driven by weak housing/lumber demand. Raymond James is bullish and one analysis suggests the stock could be 23% undervalued — but that's a value trap risk when the business fundamentals are deteriorating. Weyerhaeuser highlights its cash generation and dividend yield, but the low grade reflects the weak profitability environment for timber REITs right now. No major catalyst either way — just ongoing weakness.
The $11.5 billion Blackstone acquisition hit a major regulatory snag. New Mexico's Public Regulation Commission voted 2-1 to force TXNM and Blackstone to unwind a $400 million stock sale, calling it a violation of state law, and imposed $300,000 in fines on both companies. The merger deadline was extended to May 2027, but the deal still needs approval from the same regulator that just penalized them plus the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. On the lighter side, the board declared its regular quarterly dividend ($0.4225/share) and the company secured new term loan financing. The low grade plus the regulatory uncertainty makes this one to be cautious about — the deal could still fall apart.
Turnaround showing real progress, but risky valuation. CEO Brian Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" plan has delivered three straight quarters of positive comparable sales growth (1% → 4% → 6.2%), with U.S. transactions up 4.3% and revenue up 9% to $9.5B in Q2 FY2026. That's encouraging — it's traffic-driven, not just price increases. But earnings per share fell from $3.31 to $1.63, and the stock trades near 52-week highs at ~$105 (P/E ~45). Coffee bean prices are also surging, hitting Nestlé's profits too.
The July 29 earnings report is the next big test. The grade (45.1) says the fundamentals are still weak despite the turnaround progress — and the stock's valuation assumes a lot of future improvement already. The grade and the turnaround narrative are somewhat in tension here; the grade reflects what the numbers say today, not what they might say in a year.
- The SEC 8-K filing for Newmont (earnings-related) returned a 403 error and couldn't be read directly; the earnings details were confirmed from multiple other sources.
- Google News redirect links (news.google.com/rss/articles/...) typically can't be read — they redirect to the original source via a JavaScript-heavy SPA shell. Headlines from those were used for context only when the underlying article was available elsewhere.
- WSJ and Barron's articles were paywalled or blocked; key facts were cross-referenced from other sources covering the same events.
MarketMind is a personal, educational stock-research tool. Every morning it screens roughly 900 large- and mid-cap U.S. companies, grades each one from 0–100 on five research-backed pillars — financial health, profitability, growth, valuation, and moat — and surfaces the businesses that look strong and reasonably priced.
The idea it rests on: over the long run, a stock's price follows the company's profits. So rather than chasing hype, MarketMind looks for great businesses at fair prices and lets time do the work.
It also runs a Paper Fund — a fictional $100,000 that automatically follows the tool's own Buy ratings — so you can watch, over time, whether the picks actually work. It's pretend money: nothing here is ever bought or sold for real.
Built with free public data · refreshed every morning at 7:00 AM U.S. Central time.