MarketMind
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
S&P 500 +16% past year — the bar to beat.
Market
☀️ Fair
a reasonable time for quality buys.
New Buys Today
1
since yesterday
Paper Fund
$104,997
▲ +5.0% all-time
Mode
⚖️ Balanced
balanced mix

⭐ What's New Today

🆕 New buy GE grade 71

🟢 Top Buys Today

Great businesses at fair prices — here's why each makes the list.

1 PRI Primerica, Inc. 93
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 41.7x · current ratio 3.73 · positive free cash flow
✅ Attractively pricedP/E 12 · PEG 1.1 · FCF yield 11.5%
2 FHI Federated Hermes, Inc. 93
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 44.0x · current ratio 2.59 · positive free cash flow
✅ Highly profitableROE 31% · net margin 21% · gross margin 69%
3 HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Attractively pricedP/E 9 · PEG 0.1 · FCF yield 14.9%
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 24.9x · current ratio 1.77 · positive free cash flow
4 LOPE Grand Canyon Education, Inc. 89
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesdebt/equity 16% · interest coverage 75830.2x · current ratio 2.82 · positive free cash flow
✅ Steady and stablebeta 0.58 · steady margins
5 NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. 89
Excellent · Faster-growth pick
✅ Growing quicklyrev CAGR 24% · rev YoY 40% · EPS CAGR 46% · EPS YoY 31%
✅ Steady and stablebeta 0.38 · steady margins

…and 375 more buy candidates in the full briefing.

⚠️ Getting Worse — Watch

41 name(s) sliding toward Avoid: IRM, WHR, TXNM, ORA, NNN, NWE, PNW, CMS, D, DTE, LNT, AES, NI, WTRG, BKH, AEP, ETR, LUV, FE, POR, OGS, RCL, XEL, EVRG, WEC, AEE, NLY, SO, DUK, WMB, SR, CNP, EXC, NJR, AWK, PPL, NEE, PCG, ORCL, BX, SCHW

📈 Paper Fund (MarketMind trading a fake $100k)

$95,615$100,475$105,335$110,195Jul 16: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $100,000Jul 16: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $100,000Jul 17: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $99,660Jul 17: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $99,660Jul 19: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 19: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 20: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 20: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 21: Paper Fund $99,495 · S&P 500 $98,510Jul 21: Paper Fund $99,495 · S&P 500 $98,510Jul 22: Paper Fund $98,924 · S&P 500 $99,330Jul 22: Paper Fund $98,924 · S&P 500 $99,330Jul 23: Paper Fund $97,250 · S&P 500 $99,220Jul 23: Paper Fund $97,250 · S&P 500 $99,220Jul 24: Paper Fund $96,968 · S&P 500 $97,990Jul 24: Paper Fund $96,968 · S&P 500 $97,990Jul 25: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 25: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 26: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 26: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 28: Paper Fund $100,393 · S&P 500 $98,110Jul 28: Paper Fund $100,393 · S&P 500 $98,110Jul 29: Paper Fund $102,520 · S&P 500 $98,350Jul 29: Paper Fund $102,520 · S&P 500 $98,350Jul 30: Paper Fund $104,605 · S&P 500 $96,830Jul 30: Paper Fund $104,605 · S&P 500 $96,830Jul 31: Paper Fund $102,768 · S&P 500 $98,460Jul 31: Paper Fund $102,768 · S&P 500 $98,460Aug 3: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 3: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 4: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 4: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 5: Paper Fund $104,441 · S&P 500 $102,390Aug 5: Paper Fund $104,441 · S&P 500 $102,390Aug 10: Paper Fund $105,443 · S&P 500 $102,650Aug 10: Paper Fund $105,443 · S&P 500 $102,650Aug 11: Paper Fund $106,400 · S&P 500 $102,620Aug 11: Paper Fund $106,400 · S&P 500 $102,620Aug 12: Paper Fund $106,087 · S&P 500 $102,290Aug 12: Paper Fund $106,087 · S&P 500 $102,290Aug 13: Paper Fund $105,077 · S&P 500 $102,550Aug 13: Paper Fund $105,077 · S&P 500 $102,550Aug 14: Paper Fund $105,309 · S&P 500 $103,260Aug 14: Paper Fund $105,309 · S&P 500 $103,260Aug 17: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 17: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 18: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 18: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 19: Paper Fund $105,522 · S&P 500 $101,880Aug 19: Paper Fund $105,522 · S&P 500 $101,880Aug 20: Paper Fund $107,525 · S&P 500 $102,090Aug 20: Paper Fund $107,525 · S&P 500 $102,090Aug 21: Paper Fund $107,115 · S&P 500 $101,230Aug 21: Paper Fund $107,115 · S&P 500 $101,230Aug 24: Paper Fund $108,405 · S&P 500 $101,650Aug 24: Paper Fund $108,405 · S&P 500 $101,650Aug 25: Paper Fund $108,980 · S&P 500 $101,350Aug 25: Paper Fund $108,980 · S&P 500 $101,350Aug 26: Paper Fund $108,062 · S&P 500 $101,670Aug 26: Paper Fund $108,062 · S&P 500 $101,670Aug 27: Paper Fund $107,525 · S&P 500 $101,700Aug 27: Paper Fund $107,525 · S&P 500 $101,700Aug 28: Paper Fund $107,032 · S&P 500 $102,360Aug 28: Paper Fund $107,032 · S&P 500 $102,360Aug 31: Paper Fund $107,912 · S&P 500 $102,130Aug 31: Paper Fund $107,912 · S&P 500 $102,130Sep 1: Paper Fund $107,871 · S&P 500 $101,820Sep 1: Paper Fund $107,871 · S&P 500 $101,820Sep 2: Paper Fund $107,631 · S&P 500 $101,120Sep 2: Paper Fund $107,631 · S&P 500 $101,120Sep 3: Paper Fund $107,974 · S&P 500 $101,570Sep 3: Paper Fund $107,974 · S&P 500 $101,570Sep 4: Paper Fund $107,974 · S&P 500 $101,570Sep 4: Paper Fund $107,974 · S&P 500 $101,570Sep 7: Paper Fund $105,571 · S&P 500 $102,240Sep 7: Paper Fund $105,571 · S&P 500 $102,240Sep 8: Paper Fund $105,571 · S&P 500 $102,240Sep 8: Paper Fund $105,571 · S&P 500 $102,240Sep 9: Paper Fund $104,455 · S&P 500 $101,680Sep 9: Paper Fund $104,455 · S&P 500 $101,680Sep 10: Paper Fund $104,299 · S&P 500 $101,210Sep 10: Paper Fund $104,299 · S&P 500 $101,210Sep 11: Paper Fund $103,905 · S&P 500 $100,600Sep 11: Paper Fund $103,905 · S&P 500 $100,600Sep 14: Paper Fund $103,962 · S&P 500 $101,460Sep 14: Paper Fund $103,962 · S&P 500 $101,460Sep 15: Paper Fund $105,133 · S&P 500 $101,010Sep 15: Paper Fund $105,133 · S&P 500 $101,010Sep 16: Paper Fund $104,997 · S&P 500 $100,540Sep 16: Paper Fund $104,997 · S&P 500 $100,540Jul 16Sep 16
Paper Fund $104,997S&P 500 $100,540
Paper Fund value vs. the same $100k in the S&P 500 · 45 days so far

Value $104,997 ▲ +5.0% since 2026-07-16 · ▼ -$136 (-0.1%) since yesterday · S&P +0.5% · Cash $3,897

StockHeldPriceTodaySince buyGrade
CF83 sh$135.54▲ +3.3%+4.6%89
EOG78 sh$153.74▲ +3.5%+14.1%86
FHI156 sh$58.25▼ -1.3%-2.9%93
HIG73 sh$136.03▼ -1.1%-0.5%90
INTU33 sh$329.27▼ -2.9%+11.7%87
LOPE69 sh$153.43▼ -0.0%+7.2%89
LULU85 sh$98.37▼ -1.9%-17.2%87
NBIX58 sh$150.02▼ -4.6%-12.6%89
PRI31 sh$293.01▼ -0.8%-6.3%93
RMD49 sh$229.44▲ +2.9%+13.2%84

Fictional money · prices update daily · a live test of whether the picks actually work.

🏆 Track Record

Does the grading actually work? Two honest halves — a backtest on past data, and the real live record as it ripens. It reports the truth even when that's “not enough data yet.”

Backtest — replaying history

Reconstructed 318 graded moments across 150 companies (a sample of 150 names), then measured what each actually returned over the next 12 months.

Buy calls vs the market Buy-rated stocks averaged +14.7% over 12 months vs the S&P’s +14.7% — roughly matched the market ➖

Do higher grades earn better returns?

GradeNames12-mo returnvs S&P
A (80-100)44+13.0%-0.3%
B (65-79)160+11.8%-3.6%
C (50-64)90+12.7%-1.6%
D-F (<50)24+41.0%+27.2%

→ higher grades did WORSE here (gap 28.0 pts) ⚠️

Your live record — real calls, zero hindsight

42 snapshot(s) since 2026-07-06, none ripe yet — first 6-month check ~2027-01-06.

Backtest limits: ~5 years back, surviving companies only, restated statements — a strong first read, not gospel. The live record is the hindsight-free gold standard and strengthens every month. Refreshed 2026-09-13. Educational only — not financial advice.

📰 News — What Happened & Why It Matters

MarketMind — News Digest for 2026-09-16

Market weather: FAIR (SPY above rising 200-day average). Mode: Balanced.


Buy Candidates

LULU — lululemon athletica (Grade 87.3 · Buy · Growth)

The biggest story today. Lululemon's Q2 revenue declined 5% (ex-currency) and the stock has fallen to roughly $98 — levels not seen since 2018, down from a 52-week high of ~$226. More concerning: management guided for revenue to decline 10–11% in the current quarter, which is the second steep guidance downgrade. New CEO Heidi O'Neill (previously at Nike) took the helm this month and faces a turnaround job. Jim Cramer called it "a thoroughly broken stock," and Seeking Alpha downgraded to a lower rating.

On the other side: Michael Burry (the "Big Short" investor) made LULU his largest portfolio position under $100, calling it "the trickster" — suggesting he sees hidden value. Gross margins remain strong at ~56%. Founder Chip Wilson's divorce ($930M stake) adds uncertainty but isn't an operational issue.

Grade vs. reality tension: The 87.3 grade is high because the balance sheet is clean, margins are still strong, and the valuation has gotten cheap after the selloff. But the declining revenue trajectory and competitive pressure from cheaper alternatives are real warning signs that the grade — which measures the current financial snapshot — doesn't fully capture. The grade and the news disagree here; this one deserves extra caution and your own judgment.

CF — CF Industries (Grade 89.1 · Buy · Core)

Stock up 24% in 3 months, driven by strong nitrogen fertilizer demand, firm pricing, tightening supply, and solid shareholder returns. However, KeyBanc just initiated coverage with an Underweight (bearish) rating, citing supply concerns — meaning they think new global nitrogen capacity could pressure CF's pricing power. A Seeking Alpha piece argued the opposite: CF has a structural cost advantage over European rivals. Mixed analyst sentiment, but the underlying business is performing well right now. The grade reflects that strength.

DECK — Deckers Outdoor (Grade 88.6 · Buy · Growth)

A relevant industry shift: Nike was removed from the S&P 100 (effective Sept 21) after losing ~80% of its value. Deckers' brands (HOKA, UGG) are direct beneficiaries — DECK's gross margins top 56.5% vs Nike's 40.2%, a 25-point advantage. That said, DECK itself recently hit a 52-week low at $78.91 and BMO is cautious on the broader "softlines" sector. An SEC 8-K was filed Sept 14 but could not be read (403 error). The competitive moat is real, but the stock is caught in sector-wide weakness.

RJF — Raymond James Financial (Grade 88.7 · Buy · Core)

The company announced key executive leadership appointments (Sept 15), including Bank Segment President Steve Raney transitioning to a new role — the full details couldn't be loaded. Stock is up 17.2% over 3 months. No red flags in the news; mostly routine institutional coverage.

PRI — Primerica (Grade 93.0 · Buy · Core)

Stock up ~15% over 6 months. Rising markets are lifting the investment-product sales outlook, which is PRI's core business. A Seeking Alpha piece supports the positive view on investment product growth. CalSTRS trimmed its stake (routine rebalancing, not a red flag). Nothing in the news challenges the high grade.

FHI — Federated Hermes (Grade 92.9 · Buy · Core)

No material operational news. Headlines were institutional position shuffling and a small fund dividend — routine noise.

HIG — Hartford Insurance (Grade 90.3 · Buy · Core)

No material operational news. Multiple "underperforming the Dow" articles are just daily price-tracking filler, not fundamental concerns.

LOPE — Grand Canyon Education (Grade 89.4 · Buy · Core)

Only institutional buying news (CalSTRS, Amundi, Virginia Retirement). No operational catalysts. Quiet is fine for a steady compounder.

NBIX — Neurocrine Biosciences (Grade 89.4 · Buy · Growth)

CFO sold $363K in shares — a small amount relative to the company's size, and other insiders had routine RSU/PRSU vestings (not open-market sales). A DirectorsTalk analysis cited 34.93% potential upside. No material operational news.

KNSL — Kinsale Capital (Grade 87.6 · Buy · Core)

A headline about "premium flattening" hitting the stock couldn't be fully read. Kinsale is a specialty insurer that has grown by consistently raising premiums — if that pricing power is slowing, it's worth watching but not yet a confirmed concern. Stock actually gained on a recent down market day.


Crash Watch

WHR — Whirlpool (Grade 45.8 · Crash Watch)

Serious trouble. Whirlpool has already suspended its dividend entirely to preserve cash. Operating EPS was -$0.56 in Q1 and -$0.21 in Q2 (negative earnings both quarters). Free cash flow burn was approximately $1.1 billion in Q2 alone. Net debt stands at $5.8 billion with $350M in annual interest expense. Stock is down 49% year-to-date and 78.6% over five years. The company is betting on price hikes and balance sheet repair, but even if dividends eventually return, debt covenants will constrain payouts. The low grade is well-earned.

TXNM — TXNM Energy (Grade 46.7 · Crash Watch)

The Blackstone $11.5 billion merger is in regulatory limbo. The New Mexico PRC ordered the companies to unwind a $400M stock sale, ruling it violated state law requiring prior merger approval. In response, TXNM and Blackstone filed an amended application today (Sept 16) with dramatically sweetened ratepayer benefits: rate credits doubled from $105M to $220M, plus $80M for workforce development, virtual power plants, and low-income assistance. The PRC is asking the New Mexico Supreme Court what standards should govern its review — meaning the timeline and outcome are genuinely uncertain. TXNM also priced a $400M equity offering (7M shares at $56.50) to repay debt, diluting existing shareholders. A lot of moving parts and real regulatory risk.

IRM — Iron Mountain (Grade 39.3 · Crash Watch)

Interestingly, the news is actually positive. Iron Mountain's growth businesses are scaling fast: data centers on track for $1B+ in 2026 revenue (with AI inference demand growing), Asset Lifecycle Management grew from $30M to ~$1B, and digital solutions are at $600M+ (up 20% last quarter). They're targeting 20%+ combined growth. The low grade likely reflects REIT-typical high leverage and lower margins rather than business deterioration. The news and the grade disagree — the company may be in a genuine transformation that the current scoring doesn't fully credit.

ORA — Ormat Technologies (Grade 47.2 · Crash Watch)

Mostly constructive analyst commentary after an Investor Day on Sept 9. Oppenheimer says the 2030 targets imply an achievable rebound in electricity margins to 40%. RBC says the company is positioned for earnings growth through 2030. No negative catalysts in the news, but the current grade is low — likely reflecting the present-day margins rather than the forward outlook.

NNN — NNN REIT (Grade 48.5 · Crash Watch)

Zacks upgraded to Rank #2 (Buy), citing improved earnings prospects. Otherwise typical REIT coverage about reliable dividends and long-term leases. No operational red flags.


What Changed

GE moved from Hold to Buy (grade 71.0). No company-specific news was gathered for GE today.


Honest limits

Several articles (especially from Insider Monkey, some Yahoo Finance pages, and The Street) returned only JavaScript/metadata instead of article text — a known limitation of free news sources. The two SEC 8-K filings (DECK and LULU) returned 403 errors and could not be read. Google News redirect links generally did not resolve to readable content. Judgments above are based on the articles that could actually be read, supplemented by headline context where the full text was unavailable.

About MarketMind

MarketMind is a personal, educational stock-research tool. Every morning it screens roughly 900 large- and mid-cap U.S. companies, grades each one from 0–100 on five research-backed pillars — financial health, profitability, growth, valuation, and moat — and surfaces the businesses that look strong and reasonably priced.

The idea it rests on: over the long run, a stock's price follows the company's profits. So rather than chasing hype, MarketMind looks for great businesses at fair prices and lets time do the work.

It also runs a Paper Fund — a fictional $100,000 that automatically follows the tool's own Buy ratings — so you can watch, over time, whether the picks actually work. It's pretend money: nothing here is ever bought or sold for real.

Built with free public data · refreshed every morning at 7:00 AM U.S. Central time.

Educational only — not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research.