Great businesses at fair prices — here's why each makes the list.
…and 362 more buy candidates in the full briefing.
40 name(s) sliding toward Avoid:
Value $107,974 ▲ +8.0% since 2026-07-16 · ▼ -$0 (-0.0%) since yesterday · S&P +1.6% · Cash $3,897
| Stock | Held | Price | Today | Since buy | Grade |
| CF | 83 sh | $139.27 | ▲ +2.7% | +7.5% | 89 |
| EOG | 78 sh | $148.96 | ▲ +0.4% | +10.6% | 87 |
| FHI | 156 sh | $60.73 | ▼ -2.3% | +1.3% | 92 |
| HIG | 73 sh | $137.21 | ▲ +0.1% | +0.4% | 90 |
| INTU | 33 sh | $342.94 | ▼ -0.6% | +16.3% | 86 |
| LOPE | 69 sh | $149.59 | ▼ -0.3% | +4.5% | 89 |
| LULU | 85 sh | $120.07 | ▲ +1.8% | +1.0% | 88 |
| NBIX | 58 sh | $157.79 | ▲ +0.7% | -8.0% | 89 |
| PRI | 31 sh | $293.51 | ▲ +1.1% | -6.2% | 93 |
| RMD | 49 sh | $230.87 | ▼ -0.2% | +13.9% | 84 |
Fictional money · prices update daily · a live test of whether the picks actually work.
Does the grading actually work? Two honest halves — a backtest on past data, and the real live record as it ripens. It reports the truth even when that's “not enough data yet.”
Reconstructed 320 graded moments across 150 companies (a sample of 150 names), then measured what each actually returned over the next 12 months.
Do higher grades earn better returns?
| Grade | Names | 12-mo return | vs S&P |
| A (80-100) | 44 | +13.5% | -0.5% |
| B (65-79) | 161 | +11.8% | -3.6% |
| C (50-64) | 91 | +12.9% | -1.7% |
| D-F (<50) | 24 | +41.0% | +27.2% |
→ higher grades did WORSE here (gap 27.5 pts) ⚠️
32 snapshot(s) since 2026-07-06, none ripe yet — first 6-month check ~2027-01-06.
Backtest limits: ~5 years back, surviving companies only, restated statements — a strong first read, not gospel. The live record is the hindsight-free gold standard and strengthens every month. Refreshed 2026-08-30. Educational only — not financial advice.
Today's read covers 10 Buy candidates and 5 crash-watch names. No holdings to review (none entered yet).
Big story: Q2 earnings miss + third guidance cut this year — stock down 18% overnight to an 8-year low.
Lululemon reported Q2 revenue fell 4% to $2.42 billion, missing the $2.46 billion estimate. Comparable sales dropped 9% — described as the worst comp result in the company's modern history. North America was especially weak (comps down 12%). Adjusted operating margin shrank from 20.7% to 13.2%. EPS of $2.06 still beat the $1.79 consensus, but that's a big decline from last year's $3.10.
The really concerning part: management cut full-year guidance again, now expecting sales to decline 5-7% and projecting Q3 revenue to fall 10-11%. Interim co-CEO Meghan Frank acknowledged that "the overall response to our product launches remains inconsistent."
Interesting wrinkle: Michael Burry (of "Big Short" fame), whose largest holding is LULU at 17.4% of his portfolio, called it "the trickster in my portfolio" but said he would buy more if it trades below $100. So a well-known value investor sees opportunity in the wreckage.
Grade vs. news: The 88.1 grade reflects Lululemon's still-strong profitability and balance sheet — the company is financially healthy and still profitable, just shrinking. The news is clearly negative (deteriorating demand, repeated guidance cuts, brand uncertainty under new CEO Heidi O'Neill). This is a case where the grade and the news disagree: the fundamentals on paper look solid, but the trend is moving in the wrong direction. Worth watching closely — if the revenue declines continue, the grade will eventually catch up. This one deserves extra caution despite the high score.
Fertilizer supply crunch lifts stock to a new record high.
CF Industries shares have risen about 15% in three months, powered by tight nitrogen supply conditions, strong demand, and favorable pricing. The Wall Street Journal flagged CF hitting a new record on the "fertilizer supply crunch" (Sep 2). The fundamentals supporting the rally look real: limited global nitrogen supply, robust agricultural demand, and CF's shareholder-friendly capital returns (buybacks + dividends).
The company also filed an 8-K on Sep 3 (SEC filing), though I could not access the document (403 error from SEC.gov). Separately, CF's CFO-level accounting chief announced plans for a 2027 retirement — a planned succession, not a sudden departure.
Grade vs. news: Well aligned. CF's 88.9 grade reflects strong profitability and valuation at current earnings levels, and the news confirms the favorable supply/demand backdrop that supports those earnings.
CFO placed on administrative leave amid stock trading probe — this is a real flag.
Local news (KTAR, Aug 30) reported that Grand Canyon Education's CFO was placed on administrative leave in connection with a stock trading probe. A follow-up article (SimplyWall.st, Sep 1) discusses the appointment of an interim CFO and what this means for investors. Several large institutional investors (Canada Pension Plan, Bank of New York Mellon, HSBC, Man Group) have been buying shares recently, and Form 4 filings show insider activity.
Grade vs. news: The 89.4 grade reflects LOPE's excellent financials — very strong balance sheet (debt/equity 16%), high profitability, and consistent cash generation. But the CFO probe is a governance red flag that the grade can't capture. If this investigation leads to an accounting restatement or SEC action, it could materially change the picture. The fundamentals look great on paper, but this situation warrants monitoring before acting.
Routine institutional buying; no material catalyst.
The news flow for Primerica this week is almost entirely institutional purchase filings: Jupiter Topco, Susquehanna Fundamental Investments, and Corient Private Wealth all disclosed new or increased positions. This is normal activity for a well-run mid-cap and not a catalyst in itself.
Grade vs. news: Aligned — the top-ranked stock in today's list (92.8) has a clean news picture. No red flags, no surprises.
APAC tokenization push — interesting but early-stage.
The main news is Federated Hermes pushing into Asia-Pacific tokenization (fund shares on blockchain), pitched as a potential new AUM growth lever. The actual article content couldn't be fully loaded (Yahoo rendered only the JavaScript shell), but the headline and context suggest this is a strategic initiative rather than a near-term revenue driver. Separately, multiple articles flag FHI as undervalued on earnings and fair value metrics.
Grade vs. news: Aligned. The 92.5 grade reflects strong profitability (31% ROE, 21% net margin), solid growth (18% revenue YoY), and reasonable valuation (P/E 11). The tokenization news is a small positive — optionality for future growth — but not something that changes the thesis today.
Energy startup research lab partnership; still screens as cheap after a 123% five-year run.
Hartford partnered with UC Berkeley's Bakar Labs for Energy & Materials to provide risk-management expertise to early-stage energy startups. It's a strategic positioning move — early exposure to emerging energy-sector risks could create future underwriting opportunities — but it's not a near-term earnings driver.
More notable: despite a 123% gain over five years, Hartford reportedly still screens as undervalued on broad valuation checks. With a P/E of 10 and a free cash flow yield of 14.5%, it does look genuinely cheap for a company growing EPS at 28% CAGR.
Grade vs. news: Well aligned. No negative surprises.
FDA accepts Phase 2 trial for an Alzheimer's drug; Crenessity sales growing.
Two positive developments: (1) The FDA accepted an Investigational New Drug application for NBI-1117567, a Phase 2 trial targeting Alzheimer's cognition, through Neurocrine's partnership with Nxera. This is very early-stage but adds pipeline optionality. (2) Crenessity (for congenital adrenal hyperplasia) is seeing a sales surge.
The stock fell ~15% over 30 days despite these positives, but is up ~11% year-to-date. Narrative-based fair value estimates put the stock at roughly $213 vs. the ~$156 price, suggesting meaningful upside if the pipeline delivers.
Grade vs. news: Aligned. The grade reflects strong current profitability; the news adds potential upside from pipeline expansion. The recent price drop may be a broader market move rather than company-specific.
Board expansion + dividend declared; CAO sold 7,500 shares.
Raymond James expanded its board and declared a quarterly dividend (Sep 2). TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Hold rating. An 8-K was filed on Sep 1 (SEC.gov returned 403, so I couldn't read the details). One insider (CAO) sold 7,500 shares in an open-market trade — modest and not unusual for a senior executive.
The stock has roughly doubled shareholder returns over the past five years and still screens near fair value.
Grade vs. news: Aligned. Nothing alarming; the insider sale is small and routine.
DTC expansion (HOKA + UGG) strengthening margins; Teva launching new trail shoe.
Deckers' direct-to-consumer channel, led by HOKA and UGG, continues reshaping its sales mix toward higher margins and supporting fiscal 2027 growth. The company also filed an 8-K (Aug 31) and Teva (a Deckers brand) announced a new performance trail running shoe. Analyst support increased after the latest earnings beat and strong guidance.
Separately, a Barron's piece flagged a "footwear apocalypse" at Dick's Sporting Goods — worth noting as a potential read-through for the broader footwear market, though HOKA's premium positioning may insulate it somewhat.
Grade vs. news: Aligned. Strong brand momentum, expanding DTC margins, and analyst support all match the 88.0 grade.
Small-account E&S focus fueling specialty insurance growth; institutional reshuffling.
Kinsale's niche — small-account excess & surplus (E&S) insurance — continues to benefit from displacement out of the standard market. Several large institutions adjusted positions (Susquehanna sold 23,760 shares, while Manulife and Canada Pension Plan bought). This is normal rebalancing, not a directional signal.
Grade vs. news: Aligned. The specialty insurance growth story is intact. No red flags.
Iron Mountain swung to profit in Q2, with revenue reaching $2.03 billion (+18.5% YoY), driven by surging growth businesses (data centers + digital services). The company expanded its Saudi Arabia presence with an AI digital partnership via the Social Development Bank. These sound positive, but the low grade (39.2) reflects IRM's stretched valuation and weak balance sheet as a leveraged REIT. Notably, the CEO sold $4.4 million in stock and multiple insider sales were filed this week — not a great look when the grade is already low. The news is mixed: the business is growing, but insiders are selling and the stock's valuation remains demanding.
Whirlpool is down 15% since last earnings. Multiple sources cite a massive debt load fueling investor concerns, with one headline reading "Whirlpool Stock Plunges 7% as Massive Debt Load Fuels Investor Concerns." Consumer demand for appliances remains soft. The actual article text couldn't be loaded (rendered as JavaScript), but the headline pattern — declining stock, heavy debt, weakening demand — aligns with the low grade.
TXNM priced a $400 million stock offering at $56.50 per share — roughly 7 million new shares — to repay a $400 million term loan. This is debt-neutral (swapping debt for equity), which strengthens the balance sheet but dilutes existing shareholders. A Blackstone-related acquisition of PNM (TXNM's subsidiary) is still in progress. The low grade reflects weak profitability and valuation relative to the diluted share count.
Ormat beat earnings expectations and raised 2026 guidance, with Seeking Alpha calling it a Buy based on "raised guidance and a stronger storage business." The stock rose 3% ahead of a dividend payment. The grade (46.5) likely reflects valuation concerns — Ormat trades at a premium typical of renewable energy stocks. The news is actually positive here, and if earnings momentum continues, the grade could improve over coming quarters.
NNN REIT is positioned as a dividend stalwart — one article calls it one of "4 legendary REITs with dividends built to weather every market storm." It carries an average analyst rating of Hold. The grade reflects modest growth and valuation typical of net-lease REITs. No negative news — just a slow-and-steady dividend name that doesn't score high on our growth-oriented grading system.
Note: Several article pages (SEC.gov 8-K filings, beincrypto.com, and some Yahoo Finance articles) returned 403 errors or only rendered JavaScript shells without the actual article text. Summaries for those names rely on headlines plus other readable sources. This is a known limitation of free news sources — some sites block automated reading.
MarketMind is a personal, educational stock-research tool. Every morning it screens roughly 900 large- and mid-cap U.S. companies, grades each one from 0–100 on five research-backed pillars — financial health, profitability, growth, valuation, and moat — and surfaces the businesses that look strong and reasonably priced.
The idea it rests on: over the long run, a stock's price follows the company's profits. So rather than chasing hype, MarketMind looks for great businesses at fair prices and lets time do the work.
It also runs a Paper Fund — a fictional $100,000 that automatically follows the tool's own Buy ratings — so you can watch, over time, whether the picks actually work. It's pretend money: nothing here is ever bought or sold for real.
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