Great businesses at fair prices — here's why each makes the list.
…and 358 more buy candidates in the full briefing.
41 name(s) sliding toward Avoid:
Value $107,631 ▲ +7.6% since 2026-07-16 · ▼ -$240 (-0.2%) since yesterday · S&P +1.1% · Cash $3,897
| Stock | Held | Price | Today | Since buy | Grade |
| CF | 83 sh | $135.60 | ▲ +4.3% | +4.6% | 89 |
| EOG | 78 sh | $148.35 | ▲ +2.3% | +10.1% | 88 |
| FHI | 156 sh | $62.17 | ▼ -2.3% | +3.7% | 92 |
| HIG | 73 sh | $137.13 | ▲ +0.3% | +0.4% | 90 |
| INTU | 33 sh | $344.93 | ▼ -4.0% | +17.0% | 86 |
| LOPE | 69 sh | $150.09 | ▲ +1.3% | +4.8% | 90 |
| LULU | 85 sh | $118.00 | ▼ -1.9% | -0.7% | 88 |
| NBIX | 58 sh | $156.76 | ▲ +1.8% | -8.6% | 89 |
| PRI | 31 sh | $290.35 | ▲ +0.9% | -7.2% | 93 |
| RMD | 49 sh | $231.36 | ▼ -3.6% | +14.1% | 84 |
Fictional money · prices update daily · a live test of whether the picks actually work.
Does the grading actually work? Two honest halves — a backtest on past data, and the real live record as it ripens. It reports the truth even when that's “not enough data yet.”
Reconstructed 320 graded moments across 150 companies (a sample of 150 names), then measured what each actually returned over the next 12 months.
Do higher grades earn better returns?
| Grade | Names | 12-mo return | vs S&P |
| A (80-100) | 44 | +13.5% | -0.5% |
| B (65-79) | 161 | +11.8% | -3.6% |
| C (50-64) | 91 | +12.9% | -1.7% |
| D-F (<50) | 24 | +41.0% | +27.2% |
→ higher grades did WORSE here (gap 27.5 pts) ⚠️
32 snapshot(s) since 2026-07-06, none ripe yet — first 6-month check ~2027-01-06.
Backtest limits: ~5 years back, surviving companies only, restated statements — a strong first read, not gospel. The live record is the hindsight-free gold standard and strengthens every month. Refreshed 2026-08-30. Educational only — not financial advice.
Market weather: FAIR (SPY above rising 200-day). Mode: Balanced.
This is the most time-sensitive item today. Analysts expect Q2 revenue to decline ~2.7% year-over-year (a sharp reversal from +6.5% last year) and EPS of ~$1.79, also down. LULU has missed Wall Street revenue estimates multiple times over the past two years, so expectations are cautious. The stock trades at just ~9.4x earnings — far below the luxury/apparel peer average of 16-21x — and is down roughly 43% year-to-date. Bulls see a deeply discounted cash-generating business; bears worry about softening demand in the U.S. and China and new leadership execution risk. A DCF model actually values the stock below the current price (~$76 vs ~$120), while analyst narratives put fair value near $128-$162. Bottom line: tomorrow's report could move the stock significantly in either direction. The grade (88.2) reflects strong underlying financials, but the earnings release is a near-term wildcard. News is context here — the grade doesn't know what tomorrow's numbers will be.
Truist downgraded PRI to Hold, citing underperformance in new Term Life policy sales. Separately, a valuation analysis notes PRI trades at 11.7x earnings (vs. insurance peer avg ~13x) and is roughly fairly valued — neither cheap nor expensive. The company's five-year total return exceeds 113%, setting a high bar for future performance. Institutional buyers (Susquehanna, Manulife) added shares, which is routine 13F activity. The downgrade on slowing policy sales is worth noting — it doesn't break the investment case (financials and profitability are still excellent, hence the 92.9 grade), but it signals the growth engine may be cooling.
The most important headline here: LOPE's CFO was placed on administrative leave amid a stock trading probe (reported Aug 28 by ABC15 Arizona). SimplyWall.st also covered the interim CFO appointment. The article I could read (a Riverwater Partners fund letter) focuses on LOPE's steady cash generation and intact enrollment trends, noting the stock was "the portfolio's largest detractor" in Q2, down ~16%, as the market rewarded speculation over quality. This is a situation where news and grade disagree. The 89.6 grade reflects strong business fundamentals (profitability, cash flow), but a CFO under investigation for stock trading is a governance red flag that the scoring model can't see. Worth watching closely — if the probe leads to an SEC enforcement action or restatement, the picture changes materially.
Big strategic move: CF broke ground on Blue Point One, a $3.7 billion low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana — a joint venture with Japan's JERA (35%) and Mitsui (25%). When operational in 2029, it'll be the world's largest ammonia plant (1.4M metric tons/year), capturing 98% of production CO2. CF is investing an additional $550M in shared infrastructure. Separately, shares are up 15% in three months on strong nitrogen pricing (global supply disrupted by the Iran conflict, removing ~4-5M tons of urea) and shareholder returns ($523M in buybacks + a 20% dividend hike in July). Management sees constructive nitrogen demand through 2027. Solid alignment between the grade and the news — both point to a well-run, cash-generative business investing for the long term.
Q2 revenues hit $7.26B (+8.1% YoY), matching estimates. Business Insurance premiums grew 5% with an underlying combined ratio of 89.3% (good underwriting). Investment income surged 22% to $800M. The company approved a new $4.2B share buyback authorization through 2028 and is buying back ~$450-475M per quarter. Hartford also partnered with UC Berkeley's Bakar Labs to develop underwriting expertise in next-gen energy risks — a small but forward-looking move. Risks: catastrophe losses hit $222M in Q2, and debt-to-equity (22.7%) is above the industry norm. Grade and news align — strong earnings, disciplined capital return.
Two pipeline catalysts: (1) the FDA accepted an IND for NBI-1117567, a Phase 2 Alzheimer's cognition drug (via the Nxera partnership), and (2) Crenessity (for congenital adrenal hyperplasia) is gaining commercial traction. The company also has multiple Phase 3 programs in depression and schizophrenia. Despite this, the stock dropped ~15% in the past month. Valuation models diverge widely ($213 to $547 fair value vs. ~$156 current). Key risk: pricing pressure on their flagship INGREZZA and slower-than-expected uptake of newer drugs. Good pipeline news supports the high grade, though the stock's recent selloff suggests the market is cautious about near-term execution.
Highlighted as a "profitable stock to buy" in one analysis: 10.2% annual revenue growth, 26.6% return on equity, and smart use of buybacks to boost EPS — all at just 11.3x forward P/E. The company is also expanding into digital asset infrastructure (tokenized money market funds, blockchain partnerships), though this creates valuation uncertainty (analyst fair value ~$60 vs. stock at ~$64). Fee pressure across asset management is a sector-wide headwind. News is largely confirmatory — FHI's grade reflects the strong profitability and capital return the articles describe.
An SEC 8-K filing was submitted (dated Aug 26), but the SEC page returned a 403 error so I couldn't read the actual content. Other news: TD Cowen issued a pessimistic price forecast, the CAO sold 7,500 shares (a small open-market sale), and the company declared its regular quarterly dividend. Valuation analysis puts RJF at ~15x earnings with a 19% ROE — roughly fair on a P/E basis but potentially ~31% undervalued on an excess returns model. I couldn't verify what the 8-K contained — if it's routine (executive comp, board change), no concern; if material, it could matter. The insider sale is small and likely pre-planned.
Quiet week. EOG will present at the Barclays energy conference — routine investor-relations activity. The rest is institutional 13F filings (buys and sells). No material operational news. The grade stands on its own here.
An SEC 8-K was filed (dated Aug 27) — likely related to fiscal Q1 2027 results, as a separate headline notes "fiscal 2027 Q1 beats guidance and buybacks support the valuation." The stock is down ~31% over the past year despite continued strength from UGG and HOKA brands. Simply Wall St values it at ~$123 vs. ~$85 current, suggesting significant undervaluation. Teva launched a new trail running shoe (Trailpeak). The disconnect between strong brand performance and weak stock price is notable — the grade (87.7) sees the good fundamentals; the market seems to be pricing in broader consumer spending fears.
Mixed picture. IRM swung to $106M net income (from a $43M loss a year ago) on $2.03B revenue (+18.5%). The growth engine is data centers and digital services, which grew 50%+ year-over-year combined. Data center leasing is accelerating (75 MW signed in July alone vs. 13 MW in all of Q2). The company raised full-year guidance. However: long-term debt is $17.1B and climbing, margins compressed 90 bps, and the stock trades at 65x forward earnings. An insider has lined up their fourth sale of 38,474 shares — a pattern of repeated insider selling. The low grade (39.2) reflects the stretched valuation and heavy debt, and the insider selling pattern reinforces caution even though the business is genuinely growing.
Shares dropped 7.1% in a single session. Analysts project EPS to fall 52% next quarter and 64% for full-year 2026, with revenue declining ~4%. The company issued $2B in high-coupon secured notes in June to manage upcoming maturities, adding to interest costs. Consensus rating is "Reduce." Whirlpool trades at 18x forward earnings — high for a business with shrinking profits. The 115-year brand heritage is real, but it doesn't fix the balance sheet. Grade and news agree here — debt strain, falling earnings, and analyst pessimism all point to ongoing challenges.
TXNM priced a $400M stock offering (7.08M shares at $56.50) to repay a $400M term loan — swapping debt for equity dilution. Wells Fargo is the sole book-runner. This is straightforward deleveraging, not growth capital. The dilution is meaningful but proportional to the debt it retires. The low grade reflects utility-sector valuation and modest fundamentals; the offering is neutral-to-slightly-negative (dilutive but improves the balance sheet).
Positive news: ORA beat earnings and raised full-year 2026 guidance, with the storage business contributing. Shares rose ~3-5% on the results. Separately, Fervo Energy (a private geothermal competitor) surged on a 396 MW Google deal, which signals growing demand for geothermal energy broadly. Seeking Alpha rated ORA a "Buy" on the raised guidance. This is a case where recent news is more bullish than the grade suggests — the 45.5 score likely reflects valuation or balance-sheet concerns that the improving earnings haven't yet fully addressed. Worth keeping on the radar.
Steady-as-it-goes: 36 consecutive years of dividend growth, ~4.8% yield, trading near fair value (~$45 vs. $46 estimate). Highlighted among "legendary REITs with dividends built to weather every storm." Institutional buyers are adding shares. The low grade reflects REIT-specific scoring headwinds (REITs often score poorly on traditional profitability/growth metrics). The income story is solid for dividend investors, though interest rate sensitivity remains a risk.
- SEC 8-K filings for RJF and DECK returned 403 errors and couldn't be read directly. The DECK 8-K likely contains Q1 FY2027 results based on surrounding headlines.
- Google News redirect links (news.google.com/rss/articles/...) were not fetched — these typically redirect to the underlying source but often fail to resolve via automated tools. I relied on Yahoo Finance and direct-source articles instead.
- The Motley Fool article on LULU earnings risk returned a 404.
- The Santa Fe New Mexican article on Blackstone/PNM/TXNM returned a 429 (rate limited).
- This is a once-a-morning read of free sources. It's research context, not financial advice.
MarketMind is a personal, educational stock-research tool. Every morning it screens roughly 900 large- and mid-cap U.S. companies, grades each one from 0–100 on five research-backed pillars — financial health, profitability, growth, valuation, and moat — and surfaces the businesses that look strong and reasonably priced.
The idea it rests on: over the long run, a stock's price follows the company's profits. So rather than chasing hype, MarketMind looks for great businesses at fair prices and lets time do the work.
It also runs a Paper Fund — a fictional $100,000 that automatically follows the tool's own Buy ratings — so you can watch, over time, whether the picks actually work. It's pretend money: nothing here is ever bought or sold for real.
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