MarketMind
Thursday, August 20, 2026
S&P 500 +21% past year — the bar to beat.
Market
☀️ Fair
a reasonable time for quality buys.
New Buys Today
1
since yesterday
Paper Fund
$107,525
▲ +7.5% all-time
Mode
⚖️ Balanced
balanced mix

⭐ What's New Today

🆕 New buy AMCR grade 71
➖ No longer a buy LH (Buy→Hold)

🟢 Top Buys Today

Great businesses at fair prices — here's why each makes the list.

1 PRI Primerica, Inc. 93
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 41.7x · current ratio 3.73 · positive free cash flow
✅ Highly profitableROE 33% · net margin 23% · gross margin 72%
2 HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Attractively pricedP/E 10 · PEG 0.1 · FCF yield 14.5%
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 24.9x · current ratio 1.77 · positive free cash flow
3 LOPE Grand Canyon Education, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesdebt/equity 16% · interest coverage 75830.2x · current ratio 2.82 · positive free cash flow
✅ Steady and stablebeta 0.58 · steady margins
4 FHI Federated Hermes, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 44.0x · current ratio 2.59 · positive free cash flow
✅ Highly profitableROE 31% · net margin 21% · gross margin 69%
5 NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. 89
Excellent · Faster-growth pick
✅ Growing quicklyrev CAGR 24% · rev YoY 40% · EPS CAGR 46% · EPS YoY 31%
✅ Steady and stablebeta 0.39 · steady margins

…and 345 more buy candidates in the full briefing.

⚠️ Getting Worse — Watch

41 name(s) sliding toward Avoid: IRM, ORA, WHR, TXNM, NNN, NWE, CMS, DTE, PNW, D, LNT, RCL, ETR, NI, AES, BKH, AEP, FE, WTRG, LUV, XEL, POR, EVRG, OGS, WEC, AEE, SO, WMB, CNP, DUK, NLY, SR, EXC, AWK, NJR, PPL, NEE, PCG, BX, SCHW, LH

📈 Paper Fund (MarketMind trading a fake $100k)

$95,761$100,038$104,316$108,594Jul 16: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $100,000Jul 16: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $100,000Jul 17: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $99,660Jul 17: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $99,660Jul 19: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 19: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 20: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 20: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 21: Paper Fund $99,495 · S&P 500 $98,510Jul 21: Paper Fund $99,495 · S&P 500 $98,510Jul 22: Paper Fund $98,924 · S&P 500 $99,330Jul 22: Paper Fund $98,924 · S&P 500 $99,330Jul 23: Paper Fund $97,250 · S&P 500 $99,220Jul 23: Paper Fund $97,250 · S&P 500 $99,220Jul 24: Paper Fund $96,968 · S&P 500 $97,990Jul 24: Paper Fund $96,968 · S&P 500 $97,990Jul 25: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 25: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 26: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 26: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 28: Paper Fund $100,393 · S&P 500 $98,110Jul 28: Paper Fund $100,393 · S&P 500 $98,110Jul 29: Paper Fund $102,520 · S&P 500 $98,350Jul 29: Paper Fund $102,520 · S&P 500 $98,350Jul 30: Paper Fund $104,605 · S&P 500 $96,830Jul 30: Paper Fund $104,605 · S&P 500 $96,830Jul 31: Paper Fund $102,768 · S&P 500 $98,460Jul 31: Paper Fund $102,768 · S&P 500 $98,460Aug 3: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 3: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 4: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 4: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 5: Paper Fund $104,441 · S&P 500 $102,390Aug 5: Paper Fund $104,441 · S&P 500 $102,390Aug 10: Paper Fund $105,443 · S&P 500 $102,650Aug 10: Paper Fund $105,443 · S&P 500 $102,650Aug 11: Paper Fund $106,400 · S&P 500 $102,620Aug 11: Paper Fund $106,400 · S&P 500 $102,620Aug 12: Paper Fund $106,087 · S&P 500 $102,290Aug 12: Paper Fund $106,087 · S&P 500 $102,290Aug 13: Paper Fund $105,077 · S&P 500 $102,550Aug 13: Paper Fund $105,077 · S&P 500 $102,550Aug 14: Paper Fund $105,309 · S&P 500 $103,260Aug 14: Paper Fund $105,309 · S&P 500 $103,260Aug 17: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 17: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 18: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 18: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 19: Paper Fund $105,522 · S&P 500 $101,880Aug 19: Paper Fund $105,522 · S&P 500 $101,880Aug 20: Paper Fund $107,525 · S&P 500 $102,090Aug 20: Paper Fund $107,525 · S&P 500 $102,090Jul 16Aug 20
Paper Fund $107,525S&P 500 $102,090
Paper Fund value vs. the same $100k in the S&P 500 · 26 days so far

Value $107,525 ▲ +7.5% since 2026-07-16 · ▲ +$2,002 (+1.9%) since yesterday · S&P +2.1% · Cash $180

StockHeldPriceTodaySince buyGrade
EOG78 sh$149.48▲ +0.5%+10.9%88
FHI156 sh$63.98▲ +0.1%+6.7%90
HIG73 sh$137.53▼ -1.0%+0.6%90
INTU33 sh$362.47▲ +3.4%+23.0%87
LOPE69 sh$146.92▲ +0.1%+2.6%90
LULU85 sh$119.45▲ +0.4%+0.5%88
NBIX58 sh$155.54▲ +0.8%-9.3%89
NEM110 sh$125.08▲ +7.8%+37.7%85
PRI31 sh$300.97▼ -2.3%-3.8%93
RMD49 sh$230.65▲ +4.9%+13.8%85

Fictional money · prices update daily · a live test of whether the picks actually work.

🏆 Track Record

Does the grading actually work? Two honest halves — a backtest on past data, and the real live record as it ripens. It reports the truth even when that's “not enough data yet.”

Backtest — replaying history

Reconstructed 321 graded moments across 150 companies (a sample of 150 names), then measured what each actually returned over the next 12 months.

Buy calls vs the market Buy-rated stocks averaged +15.0% over 12 months vs the S&P’s +15.2% — roughly matched the market ➖

Do higher grades earn better returns?

GradeNames12-mo returnvs S&P
A (80-100)43+13.5%-0.5%
B (65-79)162+12.0%-3.6%
C (50-64)92+14.9%+0.0%
D-F (<50)24+41.0%+27.2%

→ higher grades did WORSE here (gap 27.5 pts) ⚠️

Your live record — real calls, zero hindsight

22 snapshot(s) since 2026-07-06, none ripe yet — first 6-month check ~2027-01-06.

Backtest limits: ~5 years back, surviving companies only, restated statements — a strong first read, not gospel. The live record is the hindsight-free gold standard and strengthens every month. Refreshed 2026-08-16. Educational only — not financial advice.

📰 News — What Happened & Why It Matters

MarketMind — News Digest for 2026-08-20

News is context alongside the grade, not a replacement for it. If news and grade disagree, both are shown honestly.


LULU — lululemon athletica (Grade 88.2 · Buy)

Soros Fund fully exits its Lululemon position. The move comes as sentiment weakens alongside broader activewear sector pressure. Separately, LULU is down ~5% on softer full-year earnings guidance, margin compression from tariff costs, and a pricing-related lawsuit in California. The CTO also departed. Despite all this, multiple analysts still consider the stock undervalued — it trades at roughly 9x P/E vs a peer group near 24x, with ~$920M in free cash flow and a 24% return on invested capital. The company's North American growth is stalling (flat to declining U.S./Canada revenue guidance), though international expansion continues.

Grade vs. news: The grade (88.2) reflects strong fundamentals that are still real — high profitability, zero net debt, big buybacks. The news is genuinely concerning though: when a major fund exits and guidance softens, it usually means near-term turbulence even if the long-term business is intact. The grade doesn't capture sentiment or lawsuit risk. Worth watching closely.

SEC 8-K filed 2026-08-13 — could not be read (SEC blocked the fetch).


KNSL — Kinsale Capital Group (Grade 87.3 · Buy)

AM Best upgrades Kinsale's credit ratings. The insurer's Long-Term ICR was raised to "a+" (Excellent) from "a", citing increased scale, disciplined underwriting, and risk-adjusted capitalization at the strongest level. Q2 was a blowout: revenue of $548.5M (+16.8% YoY) beat analyst expectations by 14.9% — the largest beat among 32 P&C insurers tracked. Stock responded +13.2%. Kinsale also declared a dividend. The company has grown to ~$2B in gross written premiums and benefits from its niche in hard-to-place, high-risk specialty insurance.

Grade vs. news: Fully aligned. Strong fundamentals confirmed by an independent rating agency upgrade and a big earnings beat. This is real, not hype.


RJF — Raymond James Financial (Grade 88.4 · Buy)

Record July client assets hit $1.93 trillion. RJF also reported strong Q2 results: revenue of $3.93B (+15.6% YoY), beating analyst estimates. Stock rose 6.8% on the report. An SEC 8-K was filed 2026-08-19 (likely disclosing the July asset figures) but couldn't be read directly. RJF also ranked among the IBD Elite 2026 list of the 15 largest independent brokerages.

Grade vs. news: Aligned. Record assets and revenue beats confirm the financial strength the grade reflects.


DECK — Deckers Outdoor (Grade 87.2 · Buy)

Mixed signals. On the positive side, Deckers' international segment is surging — international sales grew 8.4% to $502M, driven by HOKA's strong wholesale demand in Europe and UGG's expansion in Asia. Management projects international wholesale will accelerate in H2 and guides full-year revenue of $5.86-5.91B. HOKA is expected to grow low-double-digits, UGG mid-single-digits. On the negative side, the stock has slid ~15% in a month on weak constant-currency growth, margin pressure from FX headwinds, and heavier promotional activity. One analysis flagged it as 27% undervalued at ~$90 ($123 fair value), but that depends on optimistic DTC expansion assumptions.

Grade vs. news: The grade captures the underlying profitability and quality, but the margin pressure and currency headwinds are real near-term drags. HOKA's international momentum is a genuine bright spot.


NBIX — Neurocrine Biosciences (Grade 89.3 · Buy)

Stock down 12% in a month on Vykat XR safety concerns. Post-marketing adverse events have been reported to the FDA for Vykat XR (Prader-Willi syndrome treatment). That said, flagship drug Ingrezza remains very strong — $1.4B in first-half 2026 sales (+17% YoY) with record new prescriptions. Crenessity (congenital adrenal hyperplasia) is also surging: $337M in H1 sales, up ~400% YoY, with only 15% market penetration so far. Analysts recommend a wait-and-watch approach until Vykat XR's safety profile is clearer.

Grade vs. news: The grade reflects the strong underlying business (Ingrezza + Crenessity), which is real. The Vykat XR safety issue is a real risk the grade doesn't fully capture. The dip may be an opportunity if Vykat XR concerns prove manageable, but it's too early to know.


PRI — Primerica (Grade 92.7 · Buy)

Insider selling: President Peter Schneider sold $562,770 in stock (1,800 shares) via a pre-planned 10b5-1 trading plan. This is routine, not a panic signal — 10b5-1 plans are set up months in advance. Separately, two institutional investors (JLB & Associates, Oxbow Advisors) opened new positions. Analyst consensus is "Hold." No operational news.

Grade vs. news: Nothing here changes the picture. The grade (92.7, highest in the buy list) reflects rock-solid fundamentals — 33% ROE, 12x P/E, 11% FCF yield. The planned insider sale is standard.


HIG — Hartford Insurance Group (Grade 90.3 · Buy)

Mostly quiet. Institutional investors continue building positions (Great Lakes Advisors, Equity Investment Corp, Foster & Motley, Mitsubishi UFJ). Analyst consensus remains hold-to-buy. No material operational news this week — just routine institutional flow and a positive trading day. The Moderna headline in HIG's feed is unrelated (tagged by association).

Grade vs. news: No news to challenge or confirm the grade. The steady institutional buying is mildly positive.


FHI — Federated Hermes (Grade 89.5 · Buy)

Strong Q2 results. Revenue of $502.8M (+18.3% YoY), beating analyst estimates by 2.3%. Record equity assets and record gross sales in their managed account suite. MDT (quantitative) institutional separate accounts hit all-time highs. Stock rose 6.7% on the report. Bank of America trimmed its position, but that's a single holder's rebalance, not a signal.

Grade vs. news: Well aligned. Record assets and revenue growth confirm the quality the grade captures.


LOPE — Grand Canyon Education (Grade 89.9 · Buy)

Stock up 3.4% and analysts see 35% upside to their consensus target. Institutional buying continues (Crown Advisors acquired 35,000 shares, ABN AMRO opened a new position). No material operational news — no earnings surprises, no management changes, no regulatory issues. This is a quiet, steady compounder.

Grade vs. news: No conflict. The silence is consistent with a stable, well-run education company.


EOG — EOG Resources (Grade 87.7 · Buy)

Zacks raised earnings estimates. Multiple institutional investors opened or increased positions (Oxbow, Pallas Capital, Meeder, First National Bank of Omaha). BlackRock disclosed a large 45.5M-share position. No material operational news — oil prices and production guidance unchanged. EOG is described as a "decent value pick with strong fundamentals" by ChartMill.

Grade vs. news: Aligned. Earnings estimate increases and institutional accumulation support the grade.


IRM — Iron Mountain (Grade 39.2 · Crash Watch)

Data center business continues to surge — 13 MW of new leases in Q2, 110 MW year-to-date (including 75 MW in July alone). Data center, digital, and ALM businesses collectively grew over 50% year-over-year. Stock is up 42.8% YTD. A Seeking Alpha article notes momentum is peaking and suggests waiting for a pullback. Chief Commercial Officer sold ~$1.5M in stock.

Grade vs. news: IRM is on crash watch because of its low grade (39.2) — likely driven by valuation (the stock has run up enormously) and potentially weak traditional financial metrics for a REIT. The news is actually positive operationally. This is a case where grade and momentum disagree: the business is growing fast, but the stock may already price that in. The grade's caution on valuation is worth respecting.


WHR — Whirlpool (Grade 45.5 · Crash Watch)

Consumer spending alarm. Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer reported "recession-level industry contractions" and discretionary demand down ~15%. This echoes warnings from Kraft and McDonald's CEOs that lower-income households are "literally running out of money at the end of the month." Separately, multiple analysts cite three reasons to avoid WHR: revenue declining 7.3%/year for 5 years, EPS collapsing 38.4%/year, and a heavy $8B debt load (9x net-debt-to-EBITDA). CEO Bitzer gifted 80,000 shares (not a sale, but notable). Stock trades at 12x forward P/E after a 54% decline since Feb 2026.

Grade vs. news: Fully aligned. The low grade correctly flags serious fundamental problems, and the news confirms them. This is a real warning.


TXNM — TXNM Energy (Grade 46.1 · Crash Watch)

Took on $350M in new debt; Blackstone deal classified as not a change of control. An SEC 8-K was filed 2026-08-19 (couldn't be read). PNM subsidiary declared a preferred dividend ($1.145 on Oct 15). A private equity firm returned $13.3M to TXNM's parent following public criticism. Institutional buying continues (Nine Masts Capital, Alberta Investment Management).

Grade vs. news: The new $350M debt issuance is notable for a company already on crash watch. The Blackstone-related activity and criticism raise governance questions. Grade's caution seems warranted.


NNN — NNN REIT (Grade 48.2 · Crash Watch)

Board succession announced. Two new directors (Christina Chiu from Empire State Realty Trust, Charles Mueller with multifamily housing expertise) join Oct 1; Betsy Holden retires Feb 2027. NNN raised guidance (per a headline) and remains a Dividend Aristocrat with a 5.37% yield. AQR Capital disclosed a 5.14% ownership stake. Multiple Seeking Alpha articles describe it as undervalued.

Grade vs. news: The news is mildly positive (guidance raised, board refreshed, large fund buying in). The crash-watch grade likely reflects REIT-specific financial metrics (leverage, growth). There's a disconnect here — the business seems stable for an income-oriented REIT, but the grade's conservatism is built into how the tool values REITs generally.


ORA — Ormat Technologies (Grade 45.2 · Crash Watch)

Shares fell 3.7% this week. Analyst consensus is "Moderate Buy." Bank of America sold ~32,000 shares while smaller institutions are buying. No material operational news — no earnings miss, no guidance change, no regulatory issue. The decline appears to be general market rotation rather than company-specific.

Grade vs. news: No significant news either way. The low grade likely reflects valuation or growth concerns; no headlines suggest an imminent catalyst in either direction.


Sources that couldn't be read: Three SEC 8-K filings (RJF, LULU, NNN) returned 403 errors. Google News redirect links were skipped in favor of direct Yahoo/source articles where available. All institutional purchase/sale roundups from MarketBeat were treated as low-signal (they report mandatory 13F filings, not investment theses).

About MarketMind

MarketMind is a personal, educational stock-research tool. Every morning it screens roughly 900 large- and mid-cap U.S. companies, grades each one from 0–100 on five research-backed pillars — financial health, profitability, growth, valuation, and moat — and surfaces the businesses that look strong and reasonably priced.

The idea it rests on: over the long run, a stock's price follows the company's profits. So rather than chasing hype, MarketMind looks for great businesses at fair prices and lets time do the work.

It also runs a Paper Fund — a fictional $100,000 that automatically follows the tool's own Buy ratings — so you can watch, over time, whether the picks actually work. It's pretend money: nothing here is ever bought or sold for real.

Built with free public data · refreshed every morning at 7:00 AM U.S. Central time.

Educational only — not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research.