MarketMind
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
S&P 500 +21% past year — the bar to beat.
Market
☀️ Fair
a reasonable time for quality buys.
New Buys Today
0
buy list steady
Paper Fund
$105,522
▲ +5.5% all-time
Mode
⚖️ Balanced
balanced mix

⭐ What's New Today

✅ No changes since your last report — the buy list is steady. That's normal for long-term investing.

🟢 Top Buys Today

Great businesses at fair prices — here's why each makes the list.

1 PRI Primerica, Inc. 93
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 41.7x · current ratio 3.73 · positive free cash flow
✅ Highly profitableROE 33% · net margin 23% · gross margin 72%
2 HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Attractively pricedP/E 10 · PEG 0.1 · FCF yield 14.5%
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 24.9x · current ratio 1.77 · positive free cash flow
3 LOPE Grand Canyon Education, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesdebt/equity 16% · interest coverage 75830.2x · current ratio 2.82 · positive free cash flow
✅ Steady and stablebeta 0.58 · steady margins
4 FHI Federated Hermes, Inc. 90
Excellent · Steady pick
✅ Strong, healthy financesinterest coverage 44.0x · current ratio 2.59 · positive free cash flow
✅ Highly profitableROE 31% · net margin 21% · gross margin 69%
5 NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. 89
Excellent · Faster-growth pick
✅ Growing quicklyrev CAGR 24% · rev YoY 40% · EPS CAGR 46% · EPS YoY 31%
✅ Steady and stablebeta 0.39 · steady margins

…and 345 more buy candidates in the full briefing.

⚠️ Getting Worse — Watch

40 name(s) sliding toward Avoid: IRM, ORA, WHR, TXNM, NNN, NWE, CMS, DTE, PNW, D, LNT, RCL, ETR, NI, AES, BKH, AEP, FE, WTRG, LUV, XEL, POR, EVRG, OGS, WEC, AEE, SO, WMB, CNP, DUK, NLY, SR, EXC, AWK, NJR, PPL, NEE, PCG, BX, SCHW

📈 Paper Fund (MarketMind trading a fake $100k)

$95,873$99,701$103,529$107,358Jul 16: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $100,000Jul 16: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $100,000Jul 17: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $99,660Jul 17: Paper Fund $100,000 · S&P 500 $99,660Jul 19: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 19: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 20: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 20: Paper Fund $99,404 · S&P 500 $98,670Jul 21: Paper Fund $99,495 · S&P 500 $98,510Jul 21: Paper Fund $99,495 · S&P 500 $98,510Jul 22: Paper Fund $98,924 · S&P 500 $99,330Jul 22: Paper Fund $98,924 · S&P 500 $99,330Jul 23: Paper Fund $97,250 · S&P 500 $99,220Jul 23: Paper Fund $97,250 · S&P 500 $99,220Jul 24: Paper Fund $96,968 · S&P 500 $97,990Jul 24: Paper Fund $96,968 · S&P 500 $97,990Jul 25: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 25: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 26: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 26: Paper Fund $98,061 · S&P 500 $98,090Jul 28: Paper Fund $100,393 · S&P 500 $98,110Jul 28: Paper Fund $100,393 · S&P 500 $98,110Jul 29: Paper Fund $102,520 · S&P 500 $98,350Jul 29: Paper Fund $102,520 · S&P 500 $98,350Jul 30: Paper Fund $104,605 · S&P 500 $96,830Jul 30: Paper Fund $104,605 · S&P 500 $96,830Jul 31: Paper Fund $102,768 · S&P 500 $98,460Jul 31: Paper Fund $102,768 · S&P 500 $98,460Aug 3: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 3: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 4: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 4: Paper Fund $101,506 · S&P 500 $99,170Aug 5: Paper Fund $104,441 · S&P 500 $102,390Aug 5: Paper Fund $104,441 · S&P 500 $102,390Aug 10: Paper Fund $105,443 · S&P 500 $102,650Aug 10: Paper Fund $105,443 · S&P 500 $102,650Aug 11: Paper Fund $106,400 · S&P 500 $102,620Aug 11: Paper Fund $106,400 · S&P 500 $102,620Aug 12: Paper Fund $106,087 · S&P 500 $102,290Aug 12: Paper Fund $106,087 · S&P 500 $102,290Aug 13: Paper Fund $105,077 · S&P 500 $102,550Aug 13: Paper Fund $105,077 · S&P 500 $102,550Aug 14: Paper Fund $105,309 · S&P 500 $103,260Aug 14: Paper Fund $105,309 · S&P 500 $103,260Aug 17: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 17: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 18: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 18: Paper Fund $105,436 · S&P 500 $103,060Aug 19: Paper Fund $105,522 · S&P 500 $101,880Aug 19: Paper Fund $105,522 · S&P 500 $101,880Jul 16Aug 19
Paper Fund $105,522S&P 500 $101,880
Paper Fund value vs. the same $100k in the S&P 500 · 25 days so far

Value $105,522 ▲ +5.5% since 2026-07-16 · ▲ +$86 (+0.1%) since yesterday · S&P +1.9% · Cash $180

StockHeldPriceTodaySince buyGrade
EOG78 sh$146.15▲ +2.5%+8.5%88
FHI156 sh$64.15▲ +0.0%+7.0%90
HIG73 sh$138.96▲ +1.6%+1.7%90
INTU33 sh$350.41▲ +4.4%+18.9%87
LOPE69 sh$141.84▼ -1.6%-0.9%90
LULU85 sh$115.74▼ -3.2%-2.6%88
NBIX58 sh$154.49▲ +1.2%-9.9%89
NEM110 sh$120.33▲ +2.2%+32.5%85
PRI31 sh$309.92▼ -1.2%-0.9%93
RMD49 sh$220.37▼ -1.8%+8.7%85

Fictional money · prices update daily · a live test of whether the picks actually work.

🏆 Track Record

Does the grading actually work? Two honest halves — a backtest on past data, and the real live record as it ripens. It reports the truth even when that's “not enough data yet.”

Backtest — replaying history

Reconstructed 321 graded moments across 150 companies (a sample of 150 names), then measured what each actually returned over the next 12 months.

Buy calls vs the market Buy-rated stocks averaged +15.0% over 12 months vs the S&P’s +15.2% — roughly matched the market ➖

Do higher grades earn better returns?

GradeNames12-mo returnvs S&P
A (80-100)43+13.5%-0.5%
B (65-79)162+12.0%-3.6%
C (50-64)92+14.9%+0.0%
D-F (<50)24+41.0%+27.2%

→ higher grades did WORSE here (gap 27.5 pts) ⚠️

Your live record — real calls, zero hindsight

22 snapshot(s) since 2026-07-06, none ripe yet — first 6-month check ~2027-01-06.

Backtest limits: ~5 years back, surviving companies only, restated statements — a strong first read, not gospel. The live record is the hindsight-free gold standard and strengthens every month. Refreshed 2026-08-16. Educational only — not financial advice.

📰 News — What Happened & Why It Matters

MarketMind News Digest — 2026-08-19

Market weather: FAIR (SPY above rising 200-day average).


Buy Candidates

PRI — Primerica (Grade 92.7, Core, Buy)

President Peter Schneider sold ~$563k in stock (1,800 shares) under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. These planned insider sales are routine for executives diversifying compensation — not a red flag on their own. Separately, a Dowling & Partners report forecasts higher earnings ahead. Analysts' consensus rating sits at "Hold," which actually underscores that the market hasn't caught up to how strong PRI's fundamentals are (our grade: 92.7). No material catalyst either way — the thesis (cheap, highly profitable insurer with strong cash flow) remains intact.

HIG — Hartford Insurance Group (Grade 90.3, Core, Buy)

Quiet week for Hartford. News was limited to institutional fund purchases (Plato, Commerzbank, OneDigital) and a board member addition that one outlet flagged as potentially positive. A new board pick from a company this size is routine succession planning, not a strategy shift. The stock traded slightly above competitors on Monday. No earnings or guidance changes. Grade-wise, HIG remains one of the strongest names in the universe.

LOPE — Grand Canyon Education (Grade 89.9, Core, Buy)

Stock rose 3.4% on Aug 19 and is still described as undervalued by multiple sources. Wall Street analysts see ~35% upside. Institutional buying continues (Crown Advisors acquired 35,000 shares; Oppenheimer bought 55,759 shares). No negative catalysts. This is a steady, under-the-radar compounder doing exactly what our grade says it should.

FHI — Federated Hermes (Grade 89.5, Core, Buy)

Q2 was strong: revenue hit $502.8 million (+18.3% YoY), beating estimates by 2.3%. The CEO highlighted record-high equity assets and a 14th consecutive quarter of positive sales in their quantitative investing arm. Stock gained 6.7% after earnings. BofA trimmed its position slightly, but RBC and other institutions added. The grade (89.5) looks well-supported by the actual Q2 numbers.

NBIX — Neurocrine Biosciences (Grade 89.3, Growth, Buy)

The most eventful name today. Stock is down ~12% over the past month on safety concerns around Vykat XR, a recently acquired Prader-Willi syndrome drug. Post-marketing adverse events have been reported to the FDA (though this doesn't prove the drug caused them). Management says discontinuation rates may settle at 25-30%. On the bright side: flagship drug INGREZZA posted 17% YoY sales growth, and the newly published KINECT-PRO Phase 4 study showed 58% of patients achieved symptomatic remission at 24 weeks with meaningful quality-of-life improvements. Crenessity is also booming ($337M in first-half sales, up 400% YoY). The pipeline has 10 clinical readouts expected in 2027. Analysts rate it a Hold pending Vykat clarity — our grade (89.3) reflects the underlying business strength, but the Vykat overhang is real and worth watching. News and grade disagree somewhat here; the grade captures the strong core franchise, but if Vykat safety concerns escalate, that could eventually dent sentiment further.

RJF — Raymond James Financial (Grade 88.4, Core, Buy)

Strong Q2: revenue of $3.93 billion (+15.6% YoY), beating estimates. Stock gained 6.8% after earnings. Trading near its 52-week high. The firm also reported $368.9 billion in 13F holdings. No red flags — this is a solid, diversified financial services company executing well.

LULU — lululemon athletica (Grade 88.2, Growth, Buy)

The most talked-about name this week, and it's a mixed bag. The stock is down ~71% from its peak, trading at a P/E of just 9x (vs. industry average 18x). The selloff has three drivers: (1) softer full-year earnings guidance with flat-to-declining North America revenue; (2) two lawsuits — a California pricing lawsuit and a tariff-related pricing suit; (3) the Soros Fund completely exited its position, removing institutional support. On top of that, the Chief Technology/AI Officer departed before the new CEO takes over — leadership churn at a sensitive time. An SEC 8-K filing from Aug 13 was related to this executive departure. However, valuation models range from $75 (overvalued) to $150 (22.8% undervalued) — a genuine split. The Like New resale program expanding to Canada is a small positive. Our grade (88.2) captures the still-strong profitability and cash generation, but the growth and sentiment headwinds are real. This is a "the fundamentals say one thing, the market mood says another" situation — the grade doesn't override the legitimate concerns about demand softening and legal risk.

EOG — EOG Resources (Grade 87.7, Core, Buy)

No company-specific catalysts. The news was entirely institutional buying (BlackRock acquired 45.5M shares, plus smaller positions from MidFirst Bank, Citizens Financial, and others). EOG traded in line with energy peers. The grade reflects a well-run E&P company at a fair price — nothing new to report.

KNSL — Kinsale Capital Group (Grade 87.3, Growth, Buy)

A genuinely positive week. AM Best upgraded Kinsale's credit rating to "bbb+" from "bbb," citing increased scale and disciplined underwriting. Q2 was standout: revenue of $548.5M (+16.8% YoY) beat estimates by nearly 15% — the biggest beat among 32 P&C insurers tracked. Adjusted EPS of $5.54 also beat ($5.11 expected). Combined ratio of 75.5% shows excellent underwriting discipline. The company declared a $0.25/share dividend. Stock is up 13.2% since earnings. One concern: book value per share missed estimates, and the stock may look "modestly expensive" at current levels (~6.9% above analyst consensus), though a DCF approach shows it as deeply undervalued. The credit upgrade is a real, durable positive.

DECK — Deckers Outdoor (Grade 87.2, Growth, Buy)

Down 15.4% over the past month on margin pressure from foreign currency headwinds and a more promotional market environment. At $90/share, the stock appears ~27% below a fair value estimate of $123. HOKA continues to be the growth engine (Bondi 9 and Clifton 10 launches ahead), and DTC expansion should help margins over time. But weak constant-currency growth and limited free cash flow flexibility are genuine near-term concerns. The grade captures the strong brand portfolio; the price decline may be creating an opportunity, but the margin risks are worth monitoring.


Crash Watch

IRM — Iron Mountain (Grade 39.2)

Despite the low grade, IRM actually reported a strong Q2: revenue of $2.03B (+19% YoY), record adjusted EBITDA of $727M, and AFFO/share of $1.44 (+16%). Management raised full-year guidance across the board. The data center segment grew 39% with 110 megawatts signed year-to-date. CEO & President sold $4.68M in stock, and the Chief Commercial Officer sold $1.5M — notable insider selling at the top. Our low grade likely reflects valuation (the stock trades at a rich premium) and financial health concerns typical of REITs with heavy debt loads. The business is executing well, but the grade-vs-reality gap here is the classic "great business, expensive stock" tension.

ORA — Ormat Technologies (Grade 45.2)

Q2 revenue was $258.8M (+10.6% YoY) with guidance raised to $1.15-1.2B for the full year. Energy storage surged 195% to $42.8M, though margins there will normalize from 56% to 30-40% in H2. The company wrote off $6.6M from an abandoned storage project and noted one-to-two month delays on Caribbean geothermal projects. The low grade reflects weaker profitability and growth metrics relative to the universe, not a broken business. Management reaffirmed long-term targets.

WHR — Whirlpool (Grade 45.5)

The most concerning crash-watch name. Three big negatives: (1) revenue has declined 7.3% annually over five years; (2) EPS down 38.4% annually over the same period; (3) heavy debt ($8B in debt vs $1.2B cash, 9x net-debt-to-EBITDA). The CEO flagged "recession-level industry contractions" with discretionary demand down ~15%. Q2 showed some margin improvement from cost cuts and 100+ new product launches, but sales were $3.5B with only $88M net income — razor-thin 1.1% margins. Guidance calls for $2.25-2.75 EPS. AQR Capital disclosed a 5.33% stake, which could signal activist interest. The grade correctly flags this as troubled.

TXNM — TXNM Energy (Grade 46.1)

Mostly routine news: a preferred dividend declaration from subsidiary PNM and institutional buying (Nine Masts Capital, Alberta Investment Management). The more interesting item: a private equity firm returned $13.3M to PNM's parent following public criticism — suggesting governance pressure. Pentwater Capital disclosed a 5.9% beneficial stake, which at this size may signal activist intentions. The low grade reflects below-average fundamentals for a utility.

NNN — NNN REIT (Grade 48.2)

Q2 was actually decent: AFFO/share of $0.90 (+5.9% YoY), occupancy at 99.1% (up 110 bps YoY), $291M in acquisitions at a 7.3% cap rate. Management nudged guidance up slightly and raised acquisition targets to $750M from $600M. The company announced its 37th consecutive year of dividend increases (+3.3% to $0.62/quarter). Board succession is planned and orderly (two new directors with REIT experience joining in October). For a triple-net-lease REIT, this is steady execution. The low grade likely reflects valuation and the capital-intensive balance sheet rather than operational problems.


Honest Notes

- Google News redirect links (news.google.com/rss/articles/...) cannot be followed — they redirect through Google's SPA, so I relied on direct Yahoo Finance, Motley Fool, and other readable sources for the substance behind those headlines.

- The SEC 8-K for LULU (lulu-20260813.htm) returned a 403 error and could not be read directly; the filing's content (executive departure) was confirmed via multiple news sources covering the same event.

- This is a once-a-morning read of free sources. It is research assistance, not financial advice.

About MarketMind

MarketMind is a personal, educational stock-research tool. Every morning it screens roughly 900 large- and mid-cap U.S. companies, grades each one from 0–100 on five research-backed pillars — financial health, profitability, growth, valuation, and moat — and surfaces the businesses that look strong and reasonably priced.

The idea it rests on: over the long run, a stock's price follows the company's profits. So rather than chasing hype, MarketMind looks for great businesses at fair prices and lets time do the work.

It also runs a Paper Fund — a fictional $100,000 that automatically follows the tool's own Buy ratings — so you can watch, over time, whether the picks actually work. It's pretend money: nothing here is ever bought or sold for real.

Built with free public data · refreshed every morning at 7:00 AM U.S. Central time.

Educational only — not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research.